【ECON201309】                    

劳动与发展经济学研讨会

【主题】Do Smokers Respond to Cigarette Taxes Evidence from the Cigarette Market in China

【主讲人】刘宏

【时间】9月25日周三中午12：00-1：30

【地点】明德主楼 734会议室。

Abstract：This paper examines how Chinese smokers respond to tax-driven cigarette price increases by estimating a discrete choice model of demand for differentiated products, using annual nationwide brand-level cigarette sales data in China from 2005 to 2010. We allow for substitutions between different cigarette brands and also incorporate key features of rational addiction theory in the model. Results show that the overall own-price elasticity for cigarette at the brand level is -0.805 in China, and that high-price brands have greater own-price elasticities than low-price brands. We find tax-induced substitution towards low-price cigarettes as well as high-tar cigarettes, and tax hikes encourage within-tier substitution more than across-tier substitution. These results have important implications for the potential impacts of cigarette taxation

　 刘宏教授2007年毕业于纽约州立大学石溪分校，获得经济学博士学位，目前是中央财经大学中国经济与管理研究院的副教授。他有良好的发表记录，研究成果发表于Annals of Economics and Finance, China Economic Review，《经济研究》,《中国社会科学》等优秀的中英文刊物上。