国际经济学研讨会      
      题目：The effect of anticipated and unanticipated government spending on interest rates: Evidence from the United States          主讲人：刘鼎铭，厦门大学王亚南经济研究院          时间：2018年1月3日12:00-13:30          地点：明德主楼734          
         Abstract: This paper studies the effects of government spending shocks on interest rates and investigated what is the role of agents` expectation in the propagation of government spending to the term structure. We start by setting a large VAR system, which does not suffer from the problem of "non-fundamentalness". We then identify government spending surprise shocks by sign restrictions following Enders et al. (2011) and news shocks to government spending as the shocks that best explain future movements in government spending over a four-year horizon and are orthogonal to current government spending. We find that positive government spending news shocks lead to increases in both short-term and long-term interest rates. The increase in long-term interest rates is partly due to higher expected spot rates, and partly due to higher risk premia on long term bonds. For the effect on the shape of the yield curve, government spending news shocks raise the level and curvature factors of the yield curve.          
         主讲人简介:刘鼎铭，毕业于University of Minnesota，2012年获应用经济学博士学位，现任厦门大学王亚南经济研究院助理教授。在Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Economic Modelling, The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics等国外期刊发表论文数篇。