宏观经济学研讨会

201207（总第112期）

【时间】2012年4月17日（周二）12：15－13：45

【地点】明主0304教室

【主讲】夏晓华博士　中国经济改革与发展研究院讲师，中山大学岭南学院金融学博士、北京大学365体育官方唯一入口应用经济学博士后

【主题】 Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes（written by Barro and Redlick , QJE, 2011）

【摘要】For U.S. annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4–0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6–0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is “permanent” (gauged by Ramey’s defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 0.1–0.2. Since all estimated multipliers are significantly less than 1, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, particularly investment. The lack of good instruments prevents estimation of reliable multipliers for nondefense purchases; multipliers in the literature of two or more likely reflect reverse causation from GDP to nondefense purchases. Increases in average marginal income tax rates (measured by a newly constructed time series) have significantly negative effects on GDP. When interpreted as a tax multiplier, the magnitude is around 1.1. The combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that the balanced budget multiplier for defense spending is negative. We have some evidence that tax changes affect GDP mainly through substitution effects, rather than wealth effects.

【主持】陈彦斌教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型（尤其是Bewley模型）并使用计算机模拟研究中国经济改革与发展的重大问题。

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